Why Draws Are So Hard to Predict

Over our first eight gameweeks, 29% of Premier League fixtures we scored ended in a draw (23 of 80), a little behind an away win (33%) and a home win (39%). Predicts10 players called a draw in 27.6% of all predictions (454 of 1,644), so they aren't ignoring draws altogether. After six gameweeks the gap was wider, 28.2% of predictions against 32% of games, and it has narrowed as more players have started backing level scorelines.

The bigger problem is picking the right ones. When a fixture actually finished level, Predicts10 players only called it correctly 28.9% of the time (143 of 495 predictions). Compare that to 47.3% accuracy on fixtures that had a genuine winner (544 of 1,149). Draws aren't just less common to predict - once one actually happens, they're substantially harder to have called.

Part of it is psychological - picking a winner feels like a more engaged, "real" prediction than settling for a level scoreline, so a draw can feel like the unsatisfying default rather than an active call. Part of it is genuinely harder maths: there are far more plausible winning scorelines at low goal counts (1-0, 2-0, 2-1, 3-1...) than there are plausible draws (0-0, 1-1, 2-2), so even players who suspect a tight game will often round toward picking a narrow winner instead.

One small consolation: level games are slightly easier to nail exactly. 10.3% of predictions on drawn fixtures were exact scores (51 of 495), against 7.9% on fixtures with a winner (91 of 1,149), helped by 1-1 and 2-2 being such popular picks.

If you finish level with another player on points, correctly-called draws are one of the tiebreakers that separate you (see How It Works for the full order). Given how rarely the crowd gets draws right, being one of the players who correctly called a level result is a genuinely rare edge - not just a consolation 3 points.

It's also often exactly where upsets hide. When the crowd is heavily backing a favourite to win and the game finishes level instead, that's an upset by our own definition - and correctly-called upsets are another tiebreaker further down the list. Gameweek 3 is the clearest example: six of the ten games finished level, and the crowd had the draw as its outright favourite in none of them. A draw you called that nobody else saw coming is worth more than it looks on the scoreboard.