Which Scorelines Do Players Overpredict?

Players lean heavily on a handful of scorelines. 1-1 was predicted 17.0% of the time (280 predictions), 2-1 for 15.3% (252) and 1-2 for 13.0% (214). Together those three are 45% of everything predicted, and with 2-0 (9.2%) and 2-2 (7.4%) the top five reach 62%.

Real results spread out more. The most common final scores across the 80 fixtures were 0-1 and 1-1, with nine games each (11%), then 2-2 with eight (10%), and 2-1 and 0-2 with seven each (9%). The most-predicted scoreline, 1-1, was joint-most common, but it was predicted far more often than it happened, and 0-0 happened six times (8%).

The gaps between how often something was predicted and how often it happened:

• 0-0: predicted in 3.0% of predictions, happened in 8% of games (6 of 80)
• 0 or 1 total goals: predicted 13.1%, happened 24%
• 4 or more goals: predicted 20.5%, happened 31%
• Winning margin of 3 or more: predicted 6.8%, happened 18%

On average players predicted 2.62 goals per game, while the games produced 2.77, a smaller gap than after six gameweeks (2.59 against 2.95) as recent weeks have been quieter. But real results are still more extreme at both ends: more goalless games and more landslides than players expected.

65% of predictions had both teams scoring. 50% of games did (40 of 80). At least one side failed to score in half of all fixtures, but only 35% of predictions allowed for that. The gap has widened since six gameweeks, when it was 63% against 55%.

On results, home wins were predicted 41.7% of the time and happened in 39% of games. Away wins were predicted 30.7% and happened 33%. Draws were predicted 27.6% and happened 29% (more on that in why draws are so hard to predict). Both teams to score and win to nil are also tiebreakers (steps 6 and 7 in How It Works), so these gaps matter beyond the exact score.

• Don't default to 1-1 for a tight game. It is the most popular pick, but it only happened in 11% of games. If you expect few goals, 0-0 or 1-0 deserve a look too.
• Ask if the favourite wins by more. Margins of three or more were far more common than players allowed for.
• A less popular scoreline that lands is harder to share. Because players bunch on the same few scorelines, an exact score on an uncommon result is less likely to be matched by whoever you're competing with for the weekly prize.

Eighty matches is still a small sample: six goalless draws could easily be four or nine next time. Treat these as tendencies to watch rather than rules, and we'll refresh the numbers as more gameweeks are played.