Last Man Standing Strategy

Of the 29 entries in the first Last Man Standing pool, 27 were eliminated within four rounds - a 93% wipeout rate, down to just 2 survivors, and the pool then ended in a total wipeout. Round one knocked out 41% of the whole pool in a single weekend, which is the number you'd expect for the "hardest" round. But the fourth round was actually worse: 71% of everyone still standing went out in a single weekend, well after the pool had supposedly thinned to the sharper, more careful players. Survival doesn't get easier as the numbers drop - if anything, the safe picks run out fastest for the people still holding onto them.

You can only pick each team once across the whole competition, so the real decision every round isn't just "who's going to win" - it's which of your remaining safe options is worth spending now versus saving. The first pool's pick data shows this matters: Arsenal and Manchester City picks went unbeaten through those four rounds (11-for-11 and 9-for-9), but Liverpool picks only survived 14% of the time, West Ham 33%, and Chelsea picks went 0-for-3 - despite all being teams plenty of players would call an "obvious" pick on paper. The fixture and the form on the day matter more than the badge.

This catches people out more than anything else: there's no partial credit here. Pick a team that draws instead of wins, and you're out, same as if they'd lost outright. When you're deciding between two "safe-looking" teams, it's worth asking not just "who's favourite to win" but "who's least likely to get held to a draw" - those aren't always the same team.

The new pool's first round showed it. Four of the five picks won (Chelsea 5-1 against Bournemouth, Arsenal 2-1 against Leeds, and Southampton 1-0 against Portsmouth, picked twice). The only elimination was West Ham, who drew 1-1 with QPR rather than losing.

Rounds two and three cut the five entries to two. One entry made no pick for round two and was out without a game being played, so a missed deadline eliminates you just like a bad result. The other three all took Manchester City, who beat Ipswich 3-2. In round three, two took Arsenal, who beat Everton 2-0, and one took Chelsea, who lost 2-0 at home to Tottenham after 12 of the 13 players who predicted that game on Predict had backed Chelsea. A strong team at home can still lose outright, not just draw.

Picks can come from the Premier League or the Championship, so each round has around 22 fixtures to choose from (10 Premier League and 12 Championship in each round so far), rather than just 10. In the new pool's first round, three of the five picks were Championship teams. That widens the field of safe-looking options, but a team being unfamiliar isn't the same as it being risky: two of those three won 1-0, and the third drew.

There's no single right answer, but the first pool's round-one numbers make a real case for not overthinking it early: if a strong team has a genuinely favourable fixture in round one, using them then to survive the roughest week is often better than trying to save them for a round that may never come if you don't get through this one. Save your judgement calls, not necessarily your strongest teams, for later - by the time only a handful of entries remain, every fixture matters equally, so that's when reading the form closely counts for the most.

One more rule worth knowing: if your picked team's fixture is postponed or abandoned, you're safe for that round and free to pick that team again later - it doesn't burn your one-time pick on that team. Full rules are on How It Works.